Crypto didn't rally on Consensus 2018, but a rally may still be in the cards

in crypto •  4 months ago

Tom Lee and Fundstrat said they expected a significant rally around the Consensus Conference based on previous years.

That didn't happen.

In fact, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets FELL by roughly 10% over the course of the conference.

Talk about a kick in the shorts!

However, Tom Lee and Fundstrat put out a report yesterday saying why the rally likely didn't happen.

It can be seen here:


Basically, the big takeaway as to why markets didn't rally has to do with continued regulatory uncertainty. Until there is clarity in that regard markets are finding rallies tough to come by.

Kudos to Lee for owning up to his call being wrong, however, I am not so sure I would say he is wrong just yet.

If you look at the research he and Fundstrat put out, it showed there was often a rally during the conference, followed by a sell off shortly after, which was then followed by a larger rally that took place over the following weeks/months.

One of their models can be seen here:


Yes, there is really only 3 data points to go off of, but this entire asset class isn't that old so there really aren't a ton of long term patterns to go off of.

As you can see, the post Consensus rally often tended to be bigger than the initial Consensus rally, which means there may still be some gains to come.

For better clarity on what I am talking about, check out this chart:


As you can see in previous years, bitcoin prices were higher 20-45 days after the conference, and significantly higher 55-80 days after the conference.

If that trend were to repeat, we could still see a significant rally in the coming weeks, even if we didn't get the expected Consensus pop.

Stay informed my friends.

Follow me: @jrcornel

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i think crypto will rally in few years after the bitcoin halvening

Hope it happens soon...

There's no stopping cryptos! I can't wait to see what happens!

This party is just getting started. All of the ground work has been laid for s huge EOY when everyone has accumulated BTC and are ready to let it be great.


I think once there are clearer regulations and custody solutions in place for institutional clients, bitcoin will fly.


Absolutely. Folks are really losing sight of the end game and it is sad.


Not losing sight of anything I don’t think. People were notified to invest. Retail investors that is. From some creditable individuals who know about cryptos and mostly bitcoin. Why trust in the end game of predictions when current predictions are wrong.

Maybe it's just a case of some of the novelty/pioneering enthusiasm (and resulting value) having worn off. Seems to me this might be a suggestion that we're moving from the

Exciting New Technology!!!

stage to a more stable "now we actually need to BUILD something with this technology..." stage.

This is purely an intuitive flyer, but there seem to be a few whispers that (part of?) the reason Steem is lagging other alt coins is that it is seen as more of a "utility" coin, and high flying investors (although I think of them more as "lottery players") evidently prefer the "purely speculative."


That would certainly make sense and likely is part of the drag. Which means we might need to see some real development and deployment of the lightning network before we see a meaningful price increase in bitcoin.

Regarding steem, that is certainly possible. It seems the value of many of the coins currently is not directly related to potential of the project even in the slightest. I think the coming year will go a long ways in discovering a more honest price for many of these projects.


Don't get me wrong, we owe a lot of BTC, but the bloom is a bit off the rose on that one. For all the hype, I still can't walk into a store and buy a couch with BTC. I still can't viably take it at my own art gallery because the confirm times suck. So I have to pay fees to some third party who assumes the risk. Given that, I might as well just take MasterCard. Ideologies are great but if they can't be readily translated into functional application....?

I have been watching Steem and the market for a while now... as you suggest valuations seem unrelated to the potential of projects. From where I am sitting, Steem is under increasing "upwards pressure." We have the most capable blockchain out there; easily the highest number of transactions; occasionally there are more transactions on our blockchain than ALL OTHERS added together. Weiss ratings sees this as one of only FOUR coins to rate a "B" or better out of hundreds. Now the Chinese IT Ministry ranked Steem no. 2 of the 28 blockchains they looked at. To me, that looks more and more like the pressure building in a champagne bottle... at SOME point, it has to "pop loose" and suddenly we'll be looking at $25.00 Steem because someone, somewhere (with the investment bucks to back it up) suddenly realizes that most of these other projects are little more than houses of cards.

"But that would give Steem the 5-6th largest market cap at over $6.5bn...."

And that's a problem HOW, exactly? As I recall, there was a time when Steem was ranked third in the world... the fact that so many others blew by us is perhaps even more of an indication that it's about time we saw some movement...


Great points. Can't say I disagree with any of them. :)

I also think there is no correlation at all. It's just coincidence of chart and conference in the last years.


There is some major seasonality to bitcoin trading. Whether that has anything to do with the conference is up for debate.

The problem with all the bulls is they base everything on trends.

For example:

  1. "Alt season" started around this time, so it's BOUND to happen again. (So far, no dice)

  2. Bitcoin started off slow last year just like this year, and then exploded in June. Wait for it, it's coming (...doubtful).

  3. Consensus should change their name to Catalyst because every year since 2015 the Consensus conference has been the catalyst to enormous Bitcoin growth shortly after the conference ends. (BZZZZZ, wrong again!)

I think we need to stop looking back and start looking forward. Nothing is ever that predictable. Or at least let's observe the "now." The momentum has clearly shifted when it comes to the value of crypto.

What's interesting is that crypto and blockchain are more adopted, utilized, and talked about than ever before, so why is the value dropping?! (Could it be because the value before was based heavily on hype?...)

If we want to look at trends, look at 2013-2014 and beyond.

It went something like this:

  • Major spike at the end of 2013, reaching ATH (~$1150) for Bitcoin
  • Huge decline entering 2014, see-sawing between 40-60% the ATH before ultimately plummeting to about $350 by the end of the year
  • Settling around $225-350 for most of 2015 and into 2015.
  • Nice little pop at the end of 2015 and steady growth throughout 2016, hitting about 2-4x the 2014 lows by the end of 2016.

Screen Shot 2018-05-19 at 5.18.29 PM.png

The first two bullets seem eerily similar to what we experienced in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.

If I were betting on past trends, I would probably put some money on Bitcoin settling between $8k-$10k for the rest of 2018 and slowly working back up to $15-20k in 2019. Then 2020 and 2021, it breaks out again.

Of course, it would be great if BTC bucks that past trend and went to $1 Million by 2020 because I really don't want to see McAfee eat his d***.


Yep, I think the part that most people are missing is this very important caveat in front of these price predictions based on past trends...

"If the previous trends repeat then we could expect to see something along the lines of X..."


Right...the big "if". But that's the point. Past trends mean very little.

I think you should check out the charts for gold rush era. We are in similar territory. 6k is way more likely than 20k. Infact i think if we dont break 10k soon and hit 6k again, we might see a crash to about 1500$. Time will tell but this is what i really feel.


That is certainly possible. BTC does seem to have some major trouble moving up. Though I am not quite in your camp just yet.

From what I have gathered consensus was a bit of a flop this year with a lot of the attendees walking away feeling like they didn't learn anything new thus the market acted accordingly


I think the fact that no "new news" really came out was also a big part of it. The regulatory uncertainty seems to have put a cloud/chill over the space as well though.


I got to buy some cheap coins so it's not all bad, I'm looking forward to next month tickets seems to be a lot more reasonably priced too! @marketingmonk will be giving a talk which should be good.


Steem to be featured?


I would say so based on the quote below as she will be speaking at the even but I think EOS will probably take the focus.

Patricia Parkinson is a Polymath and Innovation Strategist working with digital entrepreneurs to build brands that inspire collaboration and co-creation. She’s also developing an analytics platform on Steem and driving a movement for women leadership in Blockchain.

Another way to see this is, that Consensus has no effect at all, and the upward trend in the past years is just coincidence. 😀
I mean, why should a few hundred people visiting a conference have any effect on a billion $ market? Also there were no big news coming from the conference itself.
Even I - as someone interested in crypto - have heard nothing of any substance the past week. All I read was people saying that it sucked and they were disappointed by the event.


Yes there is that possibility as well. Though a slight correction, the conference had close to 9k people as opposed to a couple hundred. Many of which are involved in the finance industry. Though, I get your point. :)

I think it’s more related to the Mt God selloff personally which may continue in 2018. This is similar to a public company that has a large concentrated owner that continues to unload shares and put downward pressure on share price.


That could be part of it. Plus if people KNOW selling is about to happen, they will hold off on purchasing. So, the effect could be greater than just the downward pressure the one seller could inflict.


Exactly. And will they continue to selloff throughout 2018? If so, what does that do to prices for the entire crypto market?


In the grand scheme of things the amount they are looking to sell isn't THAT large. It's a big number, but if done even remotely responsibly it shouldn't have that much of an impact. In my opinion at least. Hopefully he learned something from selling large chunks at the bid last time.

Great news sir.

saludos muy buena información.

Tom Lee is one of the best if not the best (Seymour is good too) on CNBC. Anyone else on there is just for clicks and straight bullshitting. They are the only two worth a shit.

thank you. Ilove this article so much


Binance users are receiving letters with an invitation to test a new application for Windows for a reward of 0.5 BTC, which "will be sent to your Binance account". All you need to do is download and enter your data.

This is phishing! Attackers try to get personal data in this way, to access your money. Official Binance does not distribute 0.5 BTC for testing Windows applications. Be careful.

Meh. I'm just ignoring price altogether. I'll check on it in a couple of years.

Kudos to Lee for owning up to his call being wrong, however, I am not so sure I would say he is wrong just yet.

You are quite right in your assertion that he isn't wrong yet.
Thank you for the useful information.

Yes a rally is definitely in the cards! We are thinking about releasing our data driven article on this using some of our social listening tools. Sentiment globally is definitely changing.

A simple line on this situation.

Good things take time to come.

Sir this is really impressive..
Love it

There was a need for rallying workers. But it did not make the rally a lot of tie problems. Which will affect the whole world to blaze. This rally was beneficial for everyone.

Changes continue to occur in Crypoccurency but this is a big challenge for the future blobal market. Thank you @jrcornel is very useful for steeminial senua. a new hope with this 2018 consensus becomes a collage of future successes and a comparison of previous years and we will win the global market later.